Cope-ing with bad news

As part of an effort to keep up with current affairs in Sub-Saharan Africa, I'm trying to read an article or two in the Jo'burg-based Mail & Guardian every day. I know this gives a somewhat narrow look at African current affairs since it focuses mostly on South African domestic issues. But, M&G follows the Zimbabwean crisis very well, and continental affairs quite well too. Plus I like reading the comments that South African readers posts, and there ain't many other English-text newspapers in Africa.

The big news in SA right now is the resignation of Allan Boesak from the Congress of the People party. Cope emerged with a big bang last fall when ANC dissidents formed it. I for one thought this was the inevitable finally happening: the emergence of a strong and competitive opposition party to the ANC. (I thought that at the very least Cope would supplant the DA as the main opposition party.)

Boy was I wrong. And with Boesak's resignation, Cope's really does seem like an empty party--both in its dwindling membership and ambiguous ideology. It seems that their strength was just a mirage built on the wishful thinking of those craving a multi-party democracy. Infighting and opportunism have further weakened their weak political core.

I'm interested in whether this means yet another opposition party will emerge before the 2013 elections? Or will this act as an example, tempering the possible departure of disgruntled ANC members?

And if a different opposition party emerges, will they share Cope's moderately-conservative right-of-ANC ideology? Or will they be an independent SACP-Cosatu party that many have predicted emerging for years?