Tuesday, May 5, 2009

I was way off

First, I was way off with my prediction.

Here are the real results and some general thoughts:

ANC- 66% (or something just a hair below 2/3rds) = about the 2000 level, which is way higher than I thought they'd win. It's not quite the resounding 70% win they had in 2004, but it's still very convincing that the ANC is the only ruling party in SA.

Democratic Alliance- 16% I don't remember where I read this, but I remember reading a quote by one ANC member saying that if Jesus was a white woman, then that'd be Helen Zille. Anyway, this is pretty impressive. The DA is still a regional party for the most part, getting most of the votes from the Western Cape. They won an outright majority (51%) in the Western Cape province, which means something (I'm not exactly sure what, but I hear it should give Zille a fair amount of free reign to legislate provincially. This should be a great opportunity.) Other thoughts: parties still seem divided along racial lines. DA seems to be the party for white and coloured liberals. This isn't a terrible thing, just kinda shows that racial differences persist. Also, I was way off in my prediction. they emerged stronger than in 2004--my prediction that they'd wane from their spot as the main challenge party was off.

COPE- 7% I really had no clue when I predicted COPE would rake in nearly a fifth of the vote. I just figured enough people were disenchanted with the ANC, and would vote for a new party that was still made of enough veteran politicans that had fought against Apartheid. I was wrong. Guess COPE lacked substance. Being an alternative to the ANC is not enough. The challenging party needs a powerful and convincing message. I think that's a good thing.